Forex Market Analysis

Forex Market Analysis

These Forex Market Analysis videos and screen shots are offered as examples of the sort of thing I do when planning trades.  This is NOT a signals service, so please do your own analysis.  If you find them useful then let me know at martin[at]

17 March 2021 – As we head towards another FOMC event this evening I thought I would share what I am currently seeing on my charts regarding the USD Index from a technical point of view.  We are currently mapping out a Monthly Elliott Wave and the USD Index is in Wave 5(ii).  We believe that to complete Wave 5(ii) price should form a Lower Low on the Weekly to set up a Regular Bullish Divergence, it may even come down to the Weekly 800sma.  To get there though is another matter.  If one looks at the Daily Chart, it may move up on this evening’s FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference, if it does it may set up a Daily Regular Bearish Divergence at the Daily 200sma, which may instigate the anticipated turn down.  Either way, all eyes will be on any Hawkish or Doveish hints with regard to future inflation and potential interest rate rises in the aftermath of the recent massive US Post-Covid Stimulus Package.  If the above price action moves do work out as anticipated, then you will have some idea of the potential moves on the Major Forex pairs.  Here is the Daily Chart of the USD Index Futures:



15 May 2020 – On the 28th June 2019 we posted about a Weekly Potential Bearish Gartley on BTCUSD (Bitcoin/USD) and we traded this down from B to C, now we are long from C and targeting D to complete the Gartley.  If it forms the Gartley then we will look to short it again from D.  Currently we are waiting to see if the XB trend line gets broken, and if so it might provide a point for a bounce on a pullback.  Here is the Weekly chart:

5th July 2019 – Just an hour or so left before NFP today and I note that the USD Index is looking Potentially Bearish plus there is a nice Bullish reversal ‘3 Drives’ set up on the EURUSD 4 hour chart.  Price is sat on potential Dynamic Support provided by the 4 hour 200sma and is Bullish Divergent.  Of course anything can happen at NFP, but thought I would post what I am seeing.  Here is the EURUSD 4 hour chart:

3rd July 2019 – As we head towards July’s Non-Farm Payroll this Friday I note that both S&P500 and the Dow Jones Indices have what appear to be Megaphone Patterns on the Weekly Charts, plus both look to be forming Regular Bearish Divergence, we might see a rejection in the coming weeks at the Resistance Trend Line.  Also,  if you like Elliott Waves, the Daily charts appear to be coming to the end of an EW5, which ties in nicely with the Weekly Divergence.  Here is the S&P500 Weekly chart:

28th June 2019 – I note that BTCUSD has just been rejected at the Weekly Fib retrace 61.8.  I was doing some ‘What Ifs?’ and thought one outcome might be a longer tern Bearish Gartley.  Now this is pure speculation, but if does come to pass there may well be some decent Swing Trades to be had, plus some interim Trend Trades. Here is the Weekly Chart:

1st May 2019 – As we head towards May’s FOMC and NFP I just wanted to point out an interesting potential setup on the USD Index, which has recently broken out long on both the Weekly and Daily charts.  Price is now pulling back for a potential Bullish Good Bye Kiss.  Here is the Daily chart:

4th April 2019 – As we head towards April NFP there is a Potential Daily Bearish Butterfly on the Dow Jones Index.  Suggest watch for 4 hour Bearish Divergence to set up.  As with the S&P 500 set up below, NFP could be the catalyst for these potential trades to trigger short.  Here is the Daily Chart:

3 April 2019 – The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both look to have Bearish Set Ups forming.  On the S&P 500 there appears to be a Bearish Rising Wedge or 3 Drives and the there is a Potential Bearish Butterfly on the Dow Jones.  Here are the Daily charts:

28 March 2019 – The USDJPY 4 hour chart looks like price is setting up a Bearish Divergence and price may also get rejected at or near the 200sma:

14th March 2019 – The GBPUSD Daily chart looks like this pair may set up a 3 Drives / Rising Wedge pattern.  The Weekly 200sma confluences nicely with a Resistance zone marked in light green on the chart below so could get a reaction there. Brexit progress or lack of it will affect this pair!  Here is the Daily chart.

14th March 2019 – Here is a potential sequence of moves on the EURUSD 4hr chart, watch for potential Bearish Divergence if price reaches that 1.3560 region.

8th March 2019 – Well NFP has come and gone and with a much lower than expected figure (+20k vs expected +180k) the USD has weakened a little.  However, of more importance was this week’s ECB more Doveish Forward Guidance and the subsequent weakening of the EURUSD.  It came as no real surprise and we have been short the EURUSD for a while based on a Daily Bearish Technical setup and is well in profit.  Curently, the EURUSD looks like is making a classic consolidation pullback before potential further downside next week. Here is the EURUSD 1 hr chart with a Green potential reversal zone highlighted. (Note: This short trade was subsequently closed after EURUSD and GBPUSD started to strengthen significantly on BREXIT news and the inferred potential short trade never setup. That’s trading!)

13th February 2019 – Following on from our analysis on the 1st February (see below) we went long the USD Index, as our analysis suggested it was in a Bullish Elliott Wave.  We have used a Daily Bullish 123 as our entry.  Currently price looks as if it may make a new high on the Weekly, if so then watch for rejection at a Resistance (or Supply) Zone or the Weekly Fib 61.6 retrace.  Our thinking is price may go to the 99.00 level and get rejected around there.  However, there is always the chance of it going higher to the Weekly 78.6 Fib retrace.  Either way we intend hanging on for the ride and so far so good.  If price does reach one these higher levels and gets rejected then we may start to look for short entries to trade a possible ‘abc’ correction back down.  Watch and wait.  Here is the Weekly chart:

1st February 2019

The USD Index looks potentially bullish on the Weekly and we may see a Head and Shoulders set up or even a Higher High.  On the Daily there appears to be a Potential 123 setup, which if we see a Daily candle close above 95.30 then we may see a strong move to the upside, with potentially a consequential move down for other USD quoted financial instruments.  Here are the Weekly and Daily charts.  Watch and wait.

18th January 2019

Gold has broken out of the 4 hour triangle consolidation to the downside.  If it pulls back up for a Good Bye Kiss, then this may be a short opportunity down to at least the 1274.00 region. (21st Jan:  In the event Gold just fell to the Target without a decent pull back).

16th January 2019

Gold is currently in a Triangle consolidation pattern on the 4 hour time frame.  If it breaks to the upside then we might see price rise to the next Supply levels as shown on the Daily chart.  Note the higher of the 2 zones is at the Fib retrace 78.6 and if price does reach here then we may see a correction to the downside.

22nd November 2018

A shortish video of some things that I currently see in the markets as we head into the USA Thanksgiving Weekend Holiday:  USD Index; EURUSD; GBPUSD & USDJPY.

13th November 2018

As the USD Index has continued to strengthen (see below) the EURUSD and Gold have predictably fallen.  The GBPUSD has also weakened but is also at the mercy of the latest leaks and whispers surrounding BREXIT.  That said the GBPCHF is worth a look at as there is currently a Daily Bearish Elliott Wave in an ‘abc’ correction and also within that another Daily Bullish EW which is currently in an EW5.  If price pulls back on the Daily/4hr and sets up a trend trade opportunity then that may be worth a look.  The black dashed line is the 800 sma and may provide some dynamic support in due course.  Certainly worth putting on your Watch List.  Here is the Daily Chart: (Update: about 30 minutes after posting this chart the news broke that a deal has been agreed between the EU & UK over BREXIT terms, as a result the GBP has strengthened and we may not now see a pullback as described above.)

9th November 2018

Following on from the previous post below, the USD Index appears to be still on track to complete a Weekly Bullish Elliott Wave 5.  If so then may see further downside on the likes of Gold and the EURUSD and other USD quoted currency pairs.  Here is the Weekly chart.

31st October 2018

In the light of further USD strength we have re-visited the USD Index Weekly Chart.  IF price breaks above the current level (currently could Double Top) then may see it rise to around the 99.00 level for a new Bullish Elliott Wave 5 completion, and if we don’t get an extended EW5, we then could expect an abc correction from there. This should mean further downside on the Majors until the USD Index hits that 99.00 level. Could be wrong of course…and we do have the US Mid-Term Elections coming up on the 6th November….

18th October 2018

The EURUSD Daily looks like it may set up a Bullish 123 in due course.  If it turns Bullish Divergent at around 1.1350 area then that could be a sign of a reversal may happen.  It could even test 1.13 in the extreme.  Now we just wait for confirmation of a bounce/turn ……!

10th October 2018

The DAX is looking very toppy on the Monthly, could be a Head and Shoulders and an ‘abc’ correction in progress.  Here is the Monthly chart:

Monday 8th October 2018

GBPJPY Daily has a Triangle formation which may be a continuation pattern in the current uptrend, here is the Daily chart:

Friday 28th September 2018

WTI/Light Crude is looking toppy, could it be about to roll over? Here is the Weekly view:

The USD Index continues to correct to the upside following the Fed raising rates by 0.25% in the USA.  This is pushing USD quoted currencies down, see ‘Trades’. Here is the Weekly view of the USD Index Dec Contract.

Tuesday 25th September 2018

The EURUSD is now testing the Daily Supply or Resistance zone. On the 4hr we may get a Bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern or a rising wedge/3 drives.  Tomorrow is FOMC which may provide the catalyst for a move down or up. Here are the Daily and 4hr charts as they currently stand:

Tuesday 11th September 2018

The EURUSD still may not have completed it’s ‘b; wave corrective move.  See the possibilities below.  If it falls to the 1.1490 area and turns Bullish Divergent then I may be interested in a long to try and trade the ‘c’ wave shown in the chart below.

Wednesday 5th September 2018

The EURUSD Weekly Bearish Elliott Wave completed EW5 as expected and is now in an ‘abc’ correction, with wave ‘b’ nearing completion, which would suggest another long opportunity forming for wave ‘c’.

Thursday 16th August 2018

The EURUSD Monthly is showing price re-testing a Trend Line as support. Price is also just above the Fib retrace 61.8 and could eventually go there and bounce. On the Weekly there appears to be a Bearish Elliott Wave 5 in progress which may or may not be at an end. It is showing Weekly Bullish Divergence, so if that holds then we should see a bounce at some point. Suggest watch and wait for the Weekly candle close. Once the EW5 ends then we should see an ‘abc’ corrective move to the upside. Here are the Monthly and Weekly charts:

Tuesday 1st August 2018

As we head towards FOMC and NFP this week, here is a potential view of what may be going on the EURUSD.  Currently it appears to be in a Daily Triangle and tightening up for a potential strong move out of the pattern at some point and if it does then it may be something worth trading.  If it breaks out of the Daily Triangle, which could be either way, then longer term I think we should see some more downside if this in a Bearish Elliott Wave. Here is the Daily chart:

Friday Close – 13th July 2018

The USD Index (Sep Futures) has set up a potential Bearish 123 on the Daily chart with a Shooting Star candlestick and on the 4hr it turned at point 3 with an Evening Star candlestick pattern.  Could this be a sign of USD weakness to come over the next wek or so?  Or could this continue higher?  The Majors seem to have turned up with some Bullish moves this afternoon/evening before the market closed. Here is the Daily chart:

So if the USD Index continues to fall then GBPUSD, EURUSD should find some upside.

Tuesday 5th April 2016:

Where next for Cable? Daily Triangle? Inverse Head & Shoulders? Potential Bullish Gartley or Bearish Butterfly?

GBPUSD Daily View - 5 April 2016 -

Oil (WTI) – Daily Potential Bullish Elliot Wave in progress – currently in EW 4.  If this finds support in or at the light blue zone then could be an opportunity for another long in the context of the Monthly Bullish Wolfe Wave.  Also OPEC and Non-OPEC country Reps are meeting on Sunday 17th April.  If Oil does bounce then we could see some more downside in the USDCAD.

Oil (WTI) Daily Bull EW - - 5 April 2016

Wednesday 2nd March 2016:

USDJPY Weekly EW 'abc' & Bearish H&S - 2 Mar 2016 -

EURUSD Monthly Pot Bull Snil or Bat - 29-02-2016 -

Tuesday 26th November 2013:

Thursday 24th October 2013:

Wednesday 13th November 2013:

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